Extreme heat deaths in the Middle East and North Africa could increase dramatically by the end of the century, according to new research published in The Lancet. Limiting global warming remains the single most effective way to reduce future mortality.
Extreme heat deaths in the MENA region
Limiting global warming to 2°C could reduce extreme heat deaths in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by around 80 percent. This is one of the regions where combinations of extreme heat and humidity could reach levels incompatible with human survival, with peak temperatures potentially approaching 50 degrees Celsius.
The findings come from a study published in The Lancet Planetary Health, which highlights how the health impacts of climate change could intensify sharply in already vulnerable regions.
Projections for extreme heat deaths
Today, the rate of extreme heat deaths across MENA countries is about two deaths per 100,000 people. If global warming follows the trajectory of the two most severe climate scenarios, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, which are consistent with a temperature increase of between 3 and 4°C, mortality rates could rise to 123 deaths per 100,000 people by the end of the century.
In practical terms, extreme heat deaths would increase sixtyfold. Even meeting the less ambitious target of the Paris Agreement would still have a significant impact, keeping mortality rates at much lower levels, at around 20 deaths per 100,000 people.
Countries facing the highest mortality burden
Iran currently records the highest rate of heat-related mortality and is expected to experience the most severe impacts between 2021 and 2100, with 423 deaths per 100,000 people. This would translate into more than 400,000 deaths per year.
High mortality rates are also expected in Palestine, Iraq and Israel. However, the study notes that smaller and wealthier Arab countries in the Arabian Peninsula, such as Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, “will experience the largest percentage increases in heat-related mortality rates compared to current levels, despite their greater prosperity relative to other MENA countries”.
In particular, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are projected to face a high future mortality burden even when the corresponding heat index is comparatively lower.
Urbanisation and climate risk
Beyond rising temperatures, rapid urbanisation is expected to play a significant role in increasing extreme heat deaths. Growing cities, if not adequately planned, can amplify heat exposure and health risks, a challenge that is already familiar in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including fast-growing urban areas in Senegal, Ethiopia and South Africa.
