Coal power plants and South Africa’s energy security dilemma
South Africa will not shut down its oldest coal power plants anytime soon, despite commitments made to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom. Keeping even the most outdated facilities online is considered necessary to prevent blackouts, and, according to national advisors, it will not significantly undermine the country’s climate performance.
This is the position of the Presidential Climate Commission, an advisory body reporting to the presidency on climate strategies and their economic and social impacts in South Africa.
“The least-cost approach is to retire coal power plants when they reach the end of their economic life,” said Crispian Olver, executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission. “Shifting decommissioning by a couple of years will not fundamentally affect our nationally determined contribution,” he added.
A slowdown in the coal power plants phase-out
The move represents a sharp slowdown that exposes the structural fragility of the so-called Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP). These are multilateral agreements between advanced economies and coal-dependent developing countries, combining financial aid, grants and loans in exchange for an accelerated coal power plants phase-out.
The agreement with South Africa, signed with the EU, the US and the UK in October 2022, was the first of its kind. Under the deal, the African country committed to closing 15 of its most polluting coal power plants, reducing coal’s share in the electricity mix from the current 80% to 59% by 2030.
As a result, national greenhouse gas emissions were expected to fall from about 430 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent to 398–510 million tonnes by 2025, and to 350–420 million tonnes by the end of the decade.
Investments, jobs and limits of the transition model
In return, international funding was meant to support the redeployment of workers across the coal value chain, accelerate renewable energy development and strengthen grid integration. The €8.5 billion pledged represented only a fraction of the estimated €98 billion required for the full transition over a 20-year period.
Beyond South Africa, similar JETP agreements have already been signed with Indonesia and Vietnam. Talks are ongoing with India, and negotiations are also being discussed with Senegal, highlighting the relevance of this model for Sub-Saharan Africa, even as its limitations become increasingly evident.