BloombergNEF warns that global copper supply could fall 20 million tonnes short of demand by 2050, even as the outlook improves for most other energy transition metals.
By Laura Contemori
Copper supply shortage remains a major challenge for the energy transition
According to BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) Transition Metals Outlook 2026, published on Tuesday, 20 October, nine out of ten metals are expected to have sufficient production capacity to meet long-term demand. Copper remains the exception, with a supply shortfall that could reach 20 million tonnes by 2050, equivalent to 44% of projected global demand.
Developing new mines and closing this gap will require USD 332 billion in investment. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the global supply of metals needed for the energy transition has improved compared with previous forecasts. In last year’s assessment, BNEF identified three materials at risk of shortages, compared with only copper in its latest projections.
The improvement reflects investments in production capacity and technological advances, particularly in the battery sector.
However, “the challenge now is not so much whether the world can produce enough metals overall, but whether the right materials will be available when and where they are needed,” says Martin Tengler, Head of Metals and Mining at BloombergNEF.
Copper demand is rising faster than mining capacity
BNEF estimates that global copper demand will increase by 61% between 2026 and 2050, reaching nearly 46 million tonnes. In the electrified transport sector, copper consumption is expected to rise by 244% to 11.4 million tonnes.
This growth will be driven primarily by rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the expansion of electricity grids.
The problem is that supply may struggle to keep pace. BNEF forecasts a copper supply deficit as early as 2028, with the gap expected to widen progressively.
According to Tengler, developing a new mine takes an average of 17 years, a period that can exceed 20 years in some regions. Even if new mining projects were launched today, the shortage could not be avoided.
“The main obstacle to closing the copper supply gap is the time required to develop a new mine,” Tengler told Rinnovabili. “The key changes needed involve simplifying regulations and permitting procedures,” he added.
Aluminium is among the potential substitutes for copper in certain applications, including some electrical equipment and types of cables.
“In other sectors, technological innovation will be needed to identify alternatives,” Tengler explained.
Lithium and graphite demand set to increase
While copper faces a growing supply shortage, other energy transition materials are expected to experience strong demand growth.
BNEF estimates that global lithium demand will triple by 2050, reaching 4.8 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), up from 1.6 million tonnes in 2026.
Graphite demand is also expected to rise significantly, increasing from 3.3 million tonnes to 6.9 million tonnes over the same period.
In both cases, the main drivers will be the expansion of electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
The outlook is different for nickel and cobalt. The growing adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use either metal in their cathodes, has led BloombergNEF to lower its previous demand forecasts.
China dominates global metals refining
The geographical concentration of refining capacity remains a major concern for global metal supply chains.
According to BNEF, refining capacity for eight of the ten materials analysed is concentrated in a single country. For seven of these materials, that country is China.
This concentration exposes supply chains to geopolitical and trade risks.
BNEF also warns that cobalt export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and limits on nickel production in Indonesia could reduce the availability of these materials.
Short-term market pressures therefore remain possible. Lithium is expected to experience a temporary supply deficit, which should ease as new production capacity comes online from 2027.
Meanwhile, the palladium market could remain in deficit until 2034.
Recycling becomes increasingly important
Recycling will play an increasingly important role in meeting demand for the metals required by the energy transition.
According to BloombergNEF, by 2050, recycling will be necessary to meet demand for eight of the ten materials covered in its analysis.
However, the battery recycling industry remains under pressure.
Falling lithium, cobalt and nickel prices, combined with excess production capacity, have created significant difficulties for independent recycling companies in the United States, some of which have gone bankrupt.
