From heatwaves to floods and wildfires, climate-related disasters are increasingly influencing elections worldwide, affecting voter access, logistics, and democratic stability.
How extreme events are affecting elections worldwide
Climate change and natural disasters are exerting growing pressure on electoral systems and democratic processes, in some cases influencing election outcomes. A comprehensive analysis shows that in 2024 alone, at least 23 elections, including primary, local, national and supranational votes across 18 countries, were affected by extreme climate events, with consequences for millions of voters globally.
Looking at a longer timeframe, researchers found that over the past twenty years, at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been impacted by climate-related hazards.
Natural disasters are testing democratic resilience
These findings, published by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, represent the first global assessment of how natural hazards are affecting democratic stability.
The number of natural disasters, including floods, hurricanes and heatwaves, has tripled over the past four decades. In line with climate science projections, elections are expected to be increasingly exposed to these risks in the coming years.
The analysis shows that climate change is affecting the entire electoral cycle. Infrastructure damage, voter displacement and last-minute procedural changes imposed on election management bodies are among the main challenges identified.
The study covers a wide range of countries, including Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Canada, Czechia, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Maldives, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria, Romania, Senegal, Tuvalu and the United States. Several African countries such as Senegal, Mozambique and Nigeria highlight how these risks are particularly relevant in regions already exposed to climate variability.
Case studies and resilience strategies
To mitigate the impact of extreme events, the report calls on election authorities to work closely with meteorological services, environmental agencies and humanitarian organizations.
Several case studies illustrate both vulnerabilities and effective responses:
In Mozambique, one of Africa’s most climate-vulnerable countries, the 2019 cyclones displaced more than 700,000 people and destroyed over 3,200 classrooms, many of which were used as polling and voter registration centers. The government postponed voter registration deadlines ahead of the 2022 elections, but provided limited guidance on how to manage the crisis. The case highlights the need for clear legal frameworks to guide electoral authorities during extreme events.
In California, between autumn 2015 and the end of 2018, 104 deadly wildfires destroyed tens of thousands of structures, displaced around 250,000 people and disrupted two election cycles. Despite these challenges, 93% of counties introduced new procedures to address ballot shortages and technical failures.
In the Philippines, national and local elections in 2025 were held during one of the longest and most intense heatwaves ever recorded in the country, with heat index levels reaching 42 to 47°C in several regions. These conditions affected logistics, campaigning and election day operations. Despite the difficulties, voting was successfully conducted on May 12, 2025, demonstrating both institutional resilience and gaps in climate risk planning.
In Peru, frequent natural hazards such as floods and landslides threaten critical electoral infrastructure. During the 2022 regional and municipal elections, electoral staff received specific training on disaster risk management. Increasing the number of polling stations also helped prevent and mitigate disruptions.
The report ultimately shows that strengthening democratic systems in a changing climate will require proactive planning, stronger coordination and targeted investments, an issue increasingly relevant not only in Europe and the Americas, but also across Sub-Saharan Africa, where climate risks and electoral cycles often intersect.
Read the full report: The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections
