Africa’s geothermal sector is gaining momentum, with installed capacity set to outpace Europe within this decade and long term growth driven by East Africa.
African geothermal capacity set to grow rapidly
African geothermal is entering a new phase of expansion. The sector currently accounts for just 1 GW of installed capacity across the continent, but its appeal is rising quickly. According to Rystad Energy, geothermal development in Africa could attract at least 35 billion dollars in investment by 2050, marking a clear shift from past trends and confirming the strategic role of this renewable source in future energy systems.
Based on Rystad’s projections, African geothermal capacity is expected to surpass Europe’s by 2030. Installed capacity on the continent could reach 13 GW by mid century, compared with an estimated 5.5 GW in Europe over the same timeframe.
The foundations for this growth are not new. Geothermal energy has been part of Africa’s energy mix since the 1950s. The Democratic Republic of the Congo was the third country in the world to build a geothermal power plant, with the Kiabukwa facility entering service in 1952.
East Africa driving the expansion
“African geothermal is regaining momentum and could help meet rising energy demand across the continent in the coming decades,” said Daniel Holmedal, senior supply chain analyst at Rystad Energy. “Our review of announced projects points to strong growth ahead, and the developments we expect to become operational, given economics and demand, show just how quickly capacity is coming online. This would move Africa from the world’s sixth largest geothermal producer in 2023 to the third by 2030.”
Kenya and Ethiopia are expected to lead African geothermal growth, together accounting for nearly 90% of total installed capacity. Both countries have extensive underground heat resources, and Rystad estimates their combined geothermal capacity could reach 12 GW by 2050.
For Ethiopia, geothermal development also supports diversification of electricity generation. Today, around 88% of power production relies on hydropower, a system increasingly exposed to climate related risks such as rising temperatures and prolonged droughts, a growing concern across sub Saharan Africa.
Skills, partnerships and regional spillovers
International expertise and technical support have played a central role in advancing geothermal development in East Africa, helping to build national capabilities alongside project deployment. According to Rystad Energy, Kenyan companies such as the Geothermal Development Company and Kenya Electricity Generating Company are now contributing to the emergence of geothermal industries in neighbouring countries.
As African geothermal scales up, particularly in East Africa, its development could strengthen energy security and provide a stable, low carbon power source suited to the continent’s long term sustainability goals.
